Alessio Moro
Publications
Spatial Polarization (with Fabio Cerina, Elisa Dienesch, and Michelle Rendall), Economic Journal, Vol. 133, pp. 30-69, January 2023. Awarded the Royal Economic Society Prize for the best article in 2023 in the Economic Journal.(Working Paper Version)
The Changing Structure of Government Consumption Spending (with Omar Rachedi), International Economic Review, Vol. 63 (3), pp. 1293-1323, August 2022 (Open Access Download available).
The Role of Gender in Employment Polarization (with Fabio Cerina and Michelle Rendall), International Economic Review, Vol. 62 (4), pp. 1655-1691, November 2021 (Open Access Download available). VoxEU Column. Online Appendix.
Structural Change in General Equilibrium, (with Carlo Valdes), in Alcorta, L., Szirmai, A., Verpagen, B. and Foster-McGregor, N. (eds), New Perspectives on Structural Change: Causes and Consequences of Structural Change in the Global Economy, Oxford University Press, 2021.
The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data, (with Miguel Leon-Ledesma), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 12 (4), pp. 109-46, October 2020. Online Appendix. Featured in the research Highlights of the American Economic Association. (Open Access Download available).
Sectoral Shocks and Home Substitution, (with Satoshi Tanaka), Economics Letters. Vol. 181, pp. 57–60, August 2019. (Working Paper Version)
Marriage and Economic Development in the Twentieth Century, (with Solmaz Moslehi and Satoshi Tanaka), Journal of Demographic Economics, Vol. 83 (4), pp. 379-420, December 2017. Marriage dataset for the 16 OECD countries in the 20th century. (Working Paper Version)
Does Home Production Drive Structural Transformation?, (with Solmaz Moslehi and Satoshi Tanaka), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 9 (3), pp. 116-46, July 2017. VIDEO of the presentation at HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS) with discussion by Rachel Ngai. (Working Paper Version)
Heterogeneous Productivity Shocks, Elasticity of Substitution and Aggregate Fluctuations (with Rodolfo Stucchi), Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 45, pp. 45–53, September 2015. (Working Paper Version)
Structural Change, Growth and Volatility, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 7 (3), pp. 259-94, July 2015 (Working Paper Version)
A Twin Crisis with Multiple Banks of Issue: Spain in the 1860s (with Galo Nuño and Pedro Tedde), European Review of Economic History Vol. 19 (2), pp. 171-194, May 2015. (Working Paper Version)
The Structural Transformation Between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility, Review of Economic Dynamics Vol. 12 (3), pp. 402-415, July 2012. (Working Paper Version) Online Appendix Codes
Biased Technical Change, Intermediate Goods and Total Factor Productivity, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 16, pp. 184-203, April 2012. (Working Paper Version)
Does TFP drive housing prices? A growth accounting exercise for four countries (with Galo Nuño), Economics Letters, Vol. 115, pp. 221-224, May 2012. (Working Paper Version)
Input-Output Structure and New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Rivista di Politica Economica, Vol. XCIX, pp. 145-166, April-June 2009. (Working Paper Version)
Sticky Prices or Sticky Information?, BNL Quarterly Review, Vol. LX No. 241, pp. 167-194, June 2007.
The Centralized Solution of the Uzawa-Lucas Model With Externalities, Rivista di Politica Economica, Vol. XCII, pp. 103-136, November-December 2002.
The Changing Structure of Government Consumption Spending (with Omar Rachedi), International Economic Review, Vol. 63 (3), pp. 1293-1323, August 2022 (Open Access Download available).
The Role of Gender in Employment Polarization (with Fabio Cerina and Michelle Rendall), International Economic Review, Vol. 62 (4), pp. 1655-1691, November 2021 (Open Access Download available). VoxEU Column. Online Appendix.
Structural Change in General Equilibrium, (with Carlo Valdes), in Alcorta, L., Szirmai, A., Verpagen, B. and Foster-McGregor, N. (eds), New Perspectives on Structural Change: Causes and Consequences of Structural Change in the Global Economy, Oxford University Press, 2021.
The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data, (with Miguel Leon-Ledesma), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 12 (4), pp. 109-46, October 2020. Online Appendix. Featured in the research Highlights of the American Economic Association. (Open Access Download available).
Sectoral Shocks and Home Substitution, (with Satoshi Tanaka), Economics Letters. Vol. 181, pp. 57–60, August 2019. (Working Paper Version)
Marriage and Economic Development in the Twentieth Century, (with Solmaz Moslehi and Satoshi Tanaka), Journal of Demographic Economics, Vol. 83 (4), pp. 379-420, December 2017. Marriage dataset for the 16 OECD countries in the 20th century. (Working Paper Version)
Does Home Production Drive Structural Transformation?, (with Solmaz Moslehi and Satoshi Tanaka), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 9 (3), pp. 116-46, July 2017. VIDEO of the presentation at HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies (IEMS) with discussion by Rachel Ngai. (Working Paper Version)
Heterogeneous Productivity Shocks, Elasticity of Substitution and Aggregate Fluctuations (with Rodolfo Stucchi), Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 45, pp. 45–53, September 2015. (Working Paper Version)
Structural Change, Growth and Volatility, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 7 (3), pp. 259-94, July 2015 (Working Paper Version)
A Twin Crisis with Multiple Banks of Issue: Spain in the 1860s (with Galo Nuño and Pedro Tedde), European Review of Economic History Vol. 19 (2), pp. 171-194, May 2015. (Working Paper Version)
The Structural Transformation Between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility, Review of Economic Dynamics Vol. 12 (3), pp. 402-415, July 2012. (Working Paper Version) Online Appendix Codes
Biased Technical Change, Intermediate Goods and Total Factor Productivity, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 16, pp. 184-203, April 2012. (Working Paper Version)
Does TFP drive housing prices? A growth accounting exercise for four countries (with Galo Nuño), Economics Letters, Vol. 115, pp. 221-224, May 2012. (Working Paper Version)
Input-Output Structure and New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Rivista di Politica Economica, Vol. XCIX, pp. 145-166, April-June 2009. (Working Paper Version)
Sticky Prices or Sticky Information?, BNL Quarterly Review, Vol. LX No. 241, pp. 167-194, June 2007.
The Centralized Solution of the Uzawa-Lucas Model With Externalities, Rivista di Politica Economica, Vol. XCII, pp. 103-136, November-December 2002.
Working Papers
Training Time, Robots and Technological Unemployment, with Fenicia Cossu (Cagliari) and Michelle Rendall (Monash) MARCH 2025. CEPR DP19343. Submitted.
Abstract: We show that labor training requirements for high-skilled occupations increased in the U.S. from 2006 to 2019. These greater training requirements reduce the extent to which workers displaced from shrinking occupations can relocate to expanding (high-skilled) occupations, thus affecting both the equilibrium occupational structure and the unemployment level. We build a quantitative model in which labor is displaced by task-replacing technological change embodied in robots (“tasks shock”) and the extent of occupational switching depends on the destination occupations' training requirements. We find that: (i) task-displacing technological change increases steady-state unemployment, but it reduces unemployment along the transition; (ii) in contrast, a comparable shock to capital embodied technological change produces larger unemployment rates with respect to the tasks shock, both in the transition and the steady state; and (iii) greater training requirements in high-skilled occupations increase steady-state unemployment and affects the occupational structure along the transition, but their effect depends on the size of the technological shock.
Can Modern Theories of Structural Change Fit Business Cycles Data?, with Loris Rubini (New Hampshire). NEW VERSION FEBRUARY 2024. CEPR DP18879. Revise and Resubmit.
Abstract: We investigate the ability of workhorse structural change models in accounting for the business cycle properties of an economy. We consider three different preferences specifications: Herrendorf, Rogerson and Valentinyi (2014, HRV), Boppart (2014), and Comin, Lashkari and Mestieri (2021, CLM), paired with standard sectoral production functions with random total factor productivity (TFP) shocks. In each case, we estimate preference parameters using long-run structural change data, and common TFP processes calibrated on observed relative prices. Our main results can be summarized by: i) all models display a volatility of aggregate variables substantially lower than the data, but they account for a large fraction of the volatility of consumption relative to GDP; ii) at the sectoral level, only CLM accounts for a substantial fraction of absolute and relative volatility; iii) all models do reasonably well in accounting for the cyclicality of aggregate GDP components; and iv) only HRV can account for the cyclicality of sectoral variables.
A Theory of Structural Change, Home Production and Leisure. with Fenicia Cossu (Cagliari), F. Javier Rodriguez-Roman (Cagliari) and Silvio Tunis (Cagliari), STEG WP 071. JULY 2023. VIDEOS of my and Javi’s presentations at the IX Workshop on Structural Transformation and Macroeconomic Dynamics and STEG’s Theme 2 Workshop 2022.
Abstract:
We
compare employment and wage polarization in the U.S. using different
sample periods and the inclusion or not of agricultural occupations. We
report three main findings. First, we show that a similar degree of
employment polarization can emerge together or without wage
polarization, depending on the sample period considered. Next, we show
that removing agricultural occupations from the sample dramatically
changes the results with respect to the case in which these are
included: i) wage polarization emerges and the degree of employment
polarization increases and ii) the timing of employment polarization
changes, and some U-shape of changes in employment shares is observed
before 1980.
Stochastic Structural Change, with Loris Rubini (New Hampshire). OCTOBER 2019. MPRA Paper No. 96144.Abstract: We show that labor training requirements for high-skilled occupations increased in the U.S. from 2006 to 2019. These greater training requirements reduce the extent to which workers displaced from shrinking occupations can relocate to expanding (high-skilled) occupations, thus affecting both the equilibrium occupational structure and the unemployment level. We build a quantitative model in which labor is displaced by task-replacing technological change embodied in robots (“tasks shock”) and the extent of occupational switching depends on the destination occupations' training requirements. We find that: (i) task-displacing technological change increases steady-state unemployment, but it reduces unemployment along the transition; (ii) in contrast, a comparable shock to capital embodied technological change produces larger unemployment rates with respect to the tasks shock, both in the transition and the steady state; and (iii) greater training requirements in high-skilled occupations increase steady-state unemployment and affects the occupational structure along the transition, but their effect depends on the size of the technological shock.
Can Modern Theories of Structural Change Fit Business Cycles Data?, with Loris Rubini (New Hampshire). NEW VERSION FEBRUARY 2024. CEPR DP18879. Revise and Resubmit.
Abstract: We investigate the ability of workhorse structural change models in accounting for the business cycle properties of an economy. We consider three different preferences specifications: Herrendorf, Rogerson and Valentinyi (2014, HRV), Boppart (2014), and Comin, Lashkari and Mestieri (2021, CLM), paired with standard sectoral production functions with random total factor productivity (TFP) shocks. In each case, we estimate preference parameters using long-run structural change data, and common TFP processes calibrated on observed relative prices. Our main results can be summarized by: i) all models display a volatility of aggregate variables substantially lower than the data, but they account for a large fraction of the volatility of consumption relative to GDP; ii) at the sectoral level, only CLM accounts for a substantial fraction of absolute and relative volatility; iii) all models do reasonably well in accounting for the cyclicality of aggregate GDP components; and iv) only HRV can account for the cyclicality of sectoral variables.
A Theory of Structural Change, Home Production and Leisure. with Fenicia Cossu (Cagliari), F. Javier Rodriguez-Roman (Cagliari) and Silvio Tunis (Cagliari), STEG WP 071. JULY 2023. VIDEOS of my and Javi’s presentations at the IX Workshop on Structural Transformation and Macroeconomic Dynamics and STEG’s Theme 2 Workshop 2022.
Abstract:
Why do agents consume more services relative to goods as income grows?
We present a theory of structural change assuming that a representative
household satisfies final needs by means of two home-production
functions in time and either goods or services from the market. When
calibrating the model to U.S. data, roughly half of structural change
is accounted for by technological change allowing services to display a
larger time saving than goods in satisfying final needs. Also, even if
preferences are homothetic, the calibrated model generates endogenous
income effects, which account for the remaining structural change
generated by the model.
A Note on Employment and Wage Polarization in the U.S., with Fabio Cerina (Cagliari) and Michelle Rendall (Monash), CEPR DP15797. FEBRUARY 2021.Abstract: We
propose a tractable algorithm to solve stochastic growth models of
structural change. Under general conditions, structural change implies
an unbalanced growth path. This property prevents the use of local
solution techniques when uncertainty is introduced, and requires the
adoption of global methods. Our algorithm relies on the Parameterized
Expectations Approximation and we apply it to a stochastic version of a
three-sector structural transformation growth model with Stone-Geary
preferences. We use the calibrated solution to show that in this class
of models there exists a tension between the long- and the short-run
properties of the economy. This tension is due to the non-homothetic
components of the various types of consumption, which are needed to fit
long-run structural change, but imply a counterfactually high
volatility of services, and counterfactually low volatilities of
manufacturing and agriculture in the short-run.
Work in Progress
Structural Change and the long run dynamics of the Equity Premium, with Vasco Carvalho (Cambridge), Vincenzo Merella (Cagliari) and Loris Rubini (New Hampshire).
Scholars and the Machine: A lesson from Dynare, with Alessio Garau (Cagliari) and Marco Nieddu (Cagliari)
Scholars and the Machine: A lesson from Dynare, with Alessio Garau (Cagliari) and Marco Nieddu (Cagliari)
Discussions
"The Great Diversification and
its Undoing" by Vasco Carvalho and Xavier Gabaix, 18th CEPR European
Summer Symposium in International Macroeconomics (ESSIM), May 2010. [slides]
"Endogenous Market Structures and Labor Market Dynamics" by Andrea Colciago and Lorenza Rossi, Anglo-French-Italian Macroeconomic Workshop, Cattolica-Bocconi, June 2011. [slides]
"Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity" by Margarida Duarte and Diego Restuccia, Workshop on Structural Change and Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cagliari, May 2012.
"Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy", by Rachel Ngai and Barbara Petrongolo, 2nd Workshop on Structural change and Macroeconomic Dynamics, University of Surrey, 2012.
"Wages, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Labor across Sectors", by Berthold Herrendorf and Todd Schoellman, 3rd Workshop on Structural change and Macroeconomic Dynamics, Paris School of Economics, 2014.
"Learning New Technology: The Polarization of the Wage Distribution", by Manuel Hidalgo-Perez and Benedetto Molinari, Italian Economic Association, Naples, 2015.
“Investment Specific Technical Progress and Economic Development”, by Roberto M Samaniego and Juliana Yu Suny, Conference on Urbanization, Structural Change and Employment, Hong Kong 2015.
"Taxes and the gender gap in employment and wages", by Lei Fang and Rachel Ngai, conference "Employment in Europe", Cyprus 2016.
"Skill-Biased Technological Change Within and Across Firms”, by Seth G. Benzell, Guillermo Lagarda, and Daniel Rock, 14th ECB Labour market workshop on "Labour markets in the digital era", Frankfurt, 2018.
"Endogenous Market Structures and Labor Market Dynamics" by Andrea Colciago and Lorenza Rossi, Anglo-French-Italian Macroeconomic Workshop, Cattolica-Bocconi, June 2011. [slides]
"Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity" by Margarida Duarte and Diego Restuccia, Workshop on Structural Change and Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cagliari, May 2012.
"Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy", by Rachel Ngai and Barbara Petrongolo, 2nd Workshop on Structural change and Macroeconomic Dynamics, University of Surrey, 2012.
"Wages, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Labor across Sectors", by Berthold Herrendorf and Todd Schoellman, 3rd Workshop on Structural change and Macroeconomic Dynamics, Paris School of Economics, 2014.
"Learning New Technology: The Polarization of the Wage Distribution", by Manuel Hidalgo-Perez and Benedetto Molinari, Italian Economic Association, Naples, 2015.
“Investment Specific Technical Progress and Economic Development”, by Roberto M Samaniego and Juliana Yu Suny, Conference on Urbanization, Structural Change and Employment, Hong Kong 2015.
"Taxes and the gender gap in employment and wages", by Lei Fang and Rachel Ngai, conference "Employment in Europe", Cyprus 2016.
"Skill-Biased Technological Change Within and Across Firms”, by Seth G. Benzell, Guillermo Lagarda, and Daniel Rock, 14th ECB Labour market workshop on "Labour markets in the digital era", Frankfurt, 2018.
Book
Etzo, I., Isoni, A., Luisetti, T., Massidda, C., Mocci, C.,
Moro, A. and Piras, R., 2003, Esercizi
e Note di Microeconomia (Exercises in Microeconomics),
Massidda, C. - Mocci, C. - Piras, R. (eds.), Torino,
Giappichelli.